Lake County's Explosive Growth: What Do The Numbers Say?

    Increased traffic and new housing starts are among the more visible signs of Lake County’s continued residential growth, with the county’s population continuing to expand at among the fastest rates in the country. The county’s growth was in the spotlight on Tuesday, February 27, when the Lake County Commission heard a report from the Orlando Economic Partnership (OEP) detailing the county’s continued explosive growth, and the expectation that it will continue into the future.
   “I’m very bullish on Lake County,” Neil Hamilton of the OEP reported. Hamilton provided data that shows Lake County is receiving nearly 40% of all new residents in the Lake/Osceola/Orange/Seminole region. Lake County’s 38% is just behind Osceola County’s 39%, with the region overall only behind the Austin, Texas area in national growth.
   "It's easy to live in Lake County and commute a few days a week," Hamilton said, outlining the growing trend of hybrid work that allows people to stay at home some, or all, of the time. Such flexibility makes it easier to live farther away from a job's location, and Lake County's lower home prices - at least in the northern section of the county - are making it more attractive to those seeking to relocate.
   In fact, a majority of county residents leave Lake to go to work. OEP data indicates 66% of county residents leave the county for their jobs, with the majority (29%) traveling to Orange County. Historically, the SR 50 corridor from South Lake County into the Orlando area has served as a popular way for many Orlando employees, especially those working in and around the theme park area of south Orlando, to live in a more rural area and still reach their jobs.
   In the period ranging from 2010 through 2022, Lake County grew at a rate of 38%, outpacing the Orlando MSA (29%), and Florida (18%).
   Where is Lake County’s growth coming from? Hamilton said the vast majority of new residents are coming from surrounding counties and elsewhere in the state. Orange and Sumter Counties lead the way, with Gwinnett County, Georgia - which includes the Atlanta area - as the third most popular former home of new Lake County residents. Broward County, Osceola County, and Seminole County are also in the top ten areas Lake County is pulling from, joining Louden County, Virginia - outside of Washington, D.C, Utah County, Utah - including Provo, and Travis County, Texas - Austin, on the list.
   Hamilton says Lake County’s low unemployment rate, at just 3.2% in December, is one of several indicators that the county’s economy is growing faster than the region overall.
   Lake County’s Real GDP leads the area, posting a 13.4% jump in 2021, and 6.5% in 2022. In both years, the county’s economy grew faster than the Orlando region overall and the state of Florida.
   While some locals may disagree, Hamilton says the county needs to be building more housing, as supply remains behind demand and is causing housing prices to rise to, or more closely to, levels seen in Orange and Seminole Counties.
   “The demand is going to be here. We need to increase supply.”
   Commissioners reacting to the report sought information as to when a slowdown in growth may come, but Hamilton said the trend is expected to continue, even as home prices near those found in more metropolitan areas.
   "Do not underplay how attractive this county is," he said.
   Commissioner Leslie Campione echoed the sentiment.
   “People like it here.”
   Hamilton did see one potential issue that could cause a slowdown in Lake County, and Florida overall. The ongoing insurance crisis has raised costs to home and property owners in recent years by substantial amounts. Today, no clear end to the difficult situation is in sight.
   “It’s a headwind,” Hamilton said in response to a query from commissioner Josh Blake. “But we have a great business climate in Florida.”