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Trouble Ahead? Dry Season Begins With Area In Near Drought Conditions

    It may be hard for some to believe, but Lake County and Florida exited the traditional rainy season with a dearth of precipitation that if continued through the winter could by spring have conditions here ripe for wildfires.
    A dry year throughout the state didn’t exclude Lake County, where overall rainfall is running far behind yearly averages.  That may come as a surprise to some residents in the Golden Triangle area who recently suffered property damage when an early October storm dumped upwards of 19 inches of rain on some areas, but data broadly indicates that while that event bought the area some time, the state overall is drying out fast.
    Leon County, in North Florida and home to the state capital, is under a burn ban as that area is experiencing its driest stretch since 2014.  In fact, the majority of the Florida Panhandle and western coast is currently in the upper echelons of the Keetch Byram Drought Index, used to measure soil moisture and by extension fire risk.  On Monday, Florida saw over 40 of its 67 counties  in the 550 or above range of the index’s 0-750 range, a worrisome trend coming out of the traditional season where heavy rains in the summer and fall traditionally buffer dryer conditions in the winter months.
    On Monday, Lake County was in the 300-399 range.
    Florida did not receive a direct hurricane hit this year, a welcome occurrence for most residents.  But tropical weather is an important historic factor when adding up the state’s precipitation.  With annual averages in the 54-60 inch range, 2025’s 42 inches through October indicate the year will end below what is traditionally seen as an appropriate number to keep Florida’s sandy soil moist.
    Local rainfall totals, short of the large event in early October, indicate Lake County is trailing behind norms.  The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission’s weather station in Paisley logged just .14 inches of rain in October, and on Monday the Withlacoochee forest management area that includes Lake County saw its localized KBDI at 507, up five points in just one day and indicative of a dry county outside of the limited areas impacted by October’s micro-storm.
    According to data accumulated by the Florida Climate Center at Florida State University, nine of the year’s first ten months saw less rainfall than the year before, often by an inch or more.  September, normally among the wetter months of the year, saw just 4.39 inches fall statewide on average, down from 9.34 the year before.